Australia’s resource and energy export earnings are forecast to reach A$422 billion in 2026–27, strengthening the near-term outlook while leaving contractors and suppliers exposed to an uneven investment cycle.
The September Resources and Energy Quarterly, published by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources on 2 October, lifts expected earnings from A$403 billion in 2025–26. The outlook then eases to A$391 billion in 2027–28 and A$379 billion in 2030–31 in nominal terms.
The figures point to a stronger year for export receipts rather than a uniform expansion in mining activity. Prices, production volumes and the commodity mix all affect the total, while operators make separate decisions about maintenance, development and capital spending.
Gold changes the export mix
Gold export earnings are forecast at around A$68 billion over the next few years, overtaking LNG to become Australia’s second-largest export by value. Iron ore is expected to remain the largest across the outlook period.
The change highlights why the national total can conceal different commercial conditions. An operator benefiting from stronger prices may be better placed to fund work, but its investment programme still depends on the economics and maturity of individual projects.
For suppliers, the distinction is between improved sector revenue and confirmed purchasing. Sustaining an operation, replacing depleted assets and developing new capacity create different requirements for engineering, equipment and construction.
Company-level investment disclosures therefore provide a clearer indication of the order book than the export forecast alone. Approved budgets, defined tenders and contract awards show where demand is entering the supply chain.
Higher energy prices also increase costs
The department’s baseline assumes global oil supply remains sufficient to meet demand and Middle East export flows gradually recover. It also examines a prolonged disruption scenario, under which elevated prices would strengthen Australian energy export earnings.
For domestic mining and transport operations, the same price pressures can increase diesel costs. A stronger export total can therefore coexist with pressure on the businesses and contractors consuming fuel.
The effect will vary with the operation, its transport requirements and its commercial terms. Suppliers carrying fuel and logistics exposure need to account for those costs when assessing the margin on new work.
Procurement determines the supplier opportunity
Maintenance and replacement work can continue through weaker commodity conditions. New developments generally require a broader combination of funding, approvals and project economics before they create a sustained construction programme.
For regional businesses, that distinction affects hiring and equipment investment. Expanding ahead of committed demand can leave capacity underused if a customer changes its timetable, while waiting too long can limit participation when work does proceed.
BWA’s earlier Newsdesk coverage reported the revised export outlook. The larger commercial question is now how operators convert stronger receipts into purchasing and investment.
Australia’s A$422 billion forecast establishes the scale of the near-term opportunity. The work available to contractors and suppliers will depend on the decisions made beneath that total.
Related reporting: BWA Newsdesk: revised resource export outlook
Sources: September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly, published 2 October.
Image: Michael SKOPAL / Unsplash. Illustrative stock image.
