Australia’s resource and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to A$422 billion in 2026–27, with gold overtaking LNG as the country’s second-largest resource export by value and lithium earnings rebounding sharply.
The September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly, released by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, lifts the near-term export outlook from A$403 billion in 2025–26 before projecting a gradual easing to A$391 billion in 2027–28.
The stronger headline number reflects elevated energy prices, high gold prices and improving earnings across some battery minerals, even as iron ore faces pressure from rising global supply and softer Chinese steel demand.
Gold and lithium reshape the mix
Gold export earnings are forecast at about A$68 billion in 2026–27 and 2027–28, placing gold ahead of LNG in export value for the first time in the outlook period. Iron ore remains Australia’s largest resource export, although earnings are expected to decline from A$107 billion in 2026–27 to A$96 billion the following year as prices soften.
Lithium has also returned to a stronger growth trajectory. The department expects Australian lithium export earnings to rise from almost A$10.2 billion in 2025–26 to more than A$16.6 billion in 2026–27, supported by higher prices and increased volumes.
Australian mine output is forecast to grow by about 8.8% a year to 2031, while global lithium demand expands at more than 11% annually, driven by electric vehicles and battery energy storage systems.
Near-term strength masks a softer long-run outlook
The export outlook remains highly exposed to geopolitics. Middle East disruptions have pushed oil and LNG prices higher and increased earnings in the short term, but the central forecast assumes those pressures gradually ease.
By 2030–31, total resource and energy export earnings are projected to fall to A$379 billion in nominal terms as commodity prices normalise and new global supply comes online.
That combination — stronger near-term cash generation but softer long-term prices — reinforces the strategic importance of project discipline, productivity and downstream investment across Australia’s resources sector. BWA recently examined how international capital is targeting Australian lithium development assets as the sector moves back toward higher pricing and investment activity.
Source notes: Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2026; Department of Industry, Science and Resources, 2 October 2026.
